Why grapes remain a genuine unknown
Unlike chocolate or xylitol, vets still don't know exactly what makes grapes and raisins toxic to some dogs. Cases have ranged from a handful of grapes causing kidney failure to dogs eating much larger amounts with no apparent effect.
That unpredictability is precisely why “my dog was fine last time” isn't useful evidence — there's no known safe threshold, and the substance responsible hasn't been identified, so there's no way to calculate a safe amount for your dog's size.
This also applies to grape by-products that aren't always obvious — raisins in trail mix or baked goods, grape juice, and even some wine-soaked foods have all been reported in poisoning cases, so it's worth checking ingredient lists on anything sweet or baked before it's shared. Until more is understood, treating grapes and raisins as an absolute no, with no safe amount, remains the only reliable approach. It simply is not worth the risk.